Identification of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Context of Climate Change for the Towns of Bol, Fianga, Moundou and N'Djamena in Chad
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Abstract:
Climate change,
characterised by extreme weather events, is one of the most serious threats to
sustainable development, with expected adverse effects on human health and food
security. Chad, which is half arid, is more than threatened by these
increasingly frequent extreme hydrometeorological events, which will weaken its
economy and have a negative impact on public health. The aim of this study is
to identify rainfall and temperature trends in the context of climate change in
the study area, which is made up of four (4) towns (N'Djaména, Bol, Fianga and
Moundou) that are representative of Chad. They are divided according to
bioclimatic zones, i.e. two in urban areas and two in rural areas. The
selection criteria were based on previous malaria and cholera epidemiological
situations. Of the 4 towns selected, two are considered to be endemic and at
risk, and the other two are those that rarely experience epidemics. In situ
observation data from observation stations in the study area will be used to
identify obvious signals of climate change. To this end, an analysis of changes
in annual precipitation and temperature over the last four (4) decades
(1980-2023) was carried out before and after the detected break using
statistical tests, as well as a trend and variability analysis of precipitation
and extreme temperature indices.The results show that over the last few
decades, there has been a change in the precipitation regime in terms of
frequency and intensity at all sites.This general downward trend over the
1981-2020 series is linked to the extremely severe droughts of the 1980-1990
and 1990-2000 decades, marked by the El Niño phenomenon of 1983/1984 and a
statistically significant increase in temperatures.The study thus contributes
to modelling efforts to better predict the resurgence of climate-sensitive
diseases.
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